Methodology

How SigmaX Proves What It Claims.

SigmaX is built so that nothing can be misrepresented. Every claim carries an evidence class. Performance is reported net of cost or not at all. Green is earned through a gate — never assigned. This page is the canonical explainer for how that discipline works.

AI analyzes. Deterministic systems validate. Humans authorize. Capital remains governed.

Evidence Levels

Five levels. Each earned, not assigned.

A candidate moves up only by passing the gate that defines the next level. Failures stay on the board.

EL1
In-sample / backtest

Describes an idea. Cannot confirm it generalizes. Never shown as live performance.

● CANDIDATE
Out-of-sample survival — pending
EL2
Out-of-sample tested

Tested on data it has not seen. The first gate an idea can earn.

Paper / shadow run — pending
EL3
Paper-live / shadow

Live conditions, no capital at risk. Fills, costs, slippage observed — not assumed.

Internal capital · disclosure — pending
EL4
Internal-capital live

Operator capital only. Net performance, drawdown, capacity, kill rule — disclosed.

Counsel review — locked
EL5COUNSEL
Customer access review

Counsel-reviewed track: legal pathway, eligibility, compliance review, operator approval.

Candidate A enters at EL1 — an in-sample result, labeled as such.

FAILURES PRESERVED · 0

illustrative candidate · a level is the gate that was passed, never a label that was assigned · failures stay on the board

EL4 · Operator or company capital only — never outside or customer capital. EL4 carries the full net-performance, drawdown, capacity, and kill-rule disclosure and a documented proof packet.

Net-of-cost framing

Reported net — or not at all.

Every cost is stated, not waved away. If one cannot be measured yet, the result is blocked rather than reported.

100
−12
−18
−6
64
Gross
Fees
Slippage
Other costs
Net
net = gross − fees − slippage − other costs
NET · REPORTED

Fees, slippage, and other costs are each stated. The number shown is the one a real participant would have kept.

illustrative, unitless figures · fee schedules, fill assumptions, and slippage are stated in every real report

Why green can be zero
Illustrative sample — not client data

The Demo Board Ships Green: 0.

An empty success column is a feature. A green result means an out-of-sample gate was earned — and until one is, the honest count is zero. A demo board that showed manufactured wins would be the failure. The illustrative board below shows the failures on purpose.

0
Green — earned

Zero validated wins until an out-of-sample gate is passed. This is the honest default, not a placeholder waiting to be filled with optimism.

5Validated candidates (illustrative)

Items that have cleared their stated gate in this demo board — shown for shape only.

5In active validation

Currently under test. Not yet promotable. Outcome unknown until the gate resolves.

5Failed the gate

Refuted or fell short out-of-sample. Failures are preserved on the board, not hidden.

5Blocked

Cannot advance without an input the platform does not yet have — data, approval, or infra.

What the labels mean

Sample, Demo, and Not Connected.

Sample / demo

Illustrative figures used to show how a surface behaves. Sample data carries the “Illustrative sample — not client data” marker and is never upgraded to real evidence. The current web surface is demo-only with live connectors disabled.

Not connected

No live data source is wired to this surface. “Not connected” is the honest default — SigmaX shows it rather than fabricating numbers to fill the space. A value appears only when a real, governed source is present.

The Atlas boundary

What Atlas Can — and Cannot — Do.

Atlas is the SigmaX AI assistant built into the platform — an analysis assistant that works on evidence and prepares decisions. It does not make them, and it holds no capital authority.

Atlas can
  • Explain the evidence behind a claim and its evidence class.
  • Summarize a thesis and its supporting and opposing nodes.
  • Draft a Briefing for human review.
  • Forecast with explicit labels, assumptions, and confidence.
  • Surface contradictions and counter-evidence.
  • Prepare a Decision Record for a human to authorize.
Atlas cannot
  • Trade.
  • Move money.
  • Authorize capital.
  • Publish without approval.
  • Guarantee an outcome.
  • Replace human review.
Strategic interaction modeling

Most Risk Comes from Other Agents.

Most risk does not come from static numbers — it comes from other agents responding. SigmaX models incentives, beliefs, counterparty behavior, and venue behavior before treating a claim as decision-ready. Every model shows its assumptions, solution concept, sensitivity, evidence, and limitations.

Read-only analysis. No capital authority. No execution.

Assumptions

What the model takes as given, stated explicitly.

Solution concept

The equilibrium or reasoning standard used to resolve the interaction.

Sensitivity

How conclusions move when assumptions move.

Evidence

The evidence class supporting each input and conclusion.

Limitations

What the model does not capture and where it can be wrong.

Compliance disclaimer

SigmaX provides capital decision intelligence, scenario analysis, and authority workflow software. SigmaX does not provide investment advice. SigmaX does not place trades, move funds, route customer capital, or manage client capital. Shadow/simulated/paper/backtested results are not live trading results. No result is a guarantee of future performance. Human approval is required before any capital-linked action.

Where SigmaX uses AI, it is governed as assistive software: truthful capability claims, human oversight, traceable records, disclosure of AI assistance, and no capital authority. SigmaX designs AI controls with reference to applicable securities obligations, FINRA existing-rule guidance, SEC AI-claims discipline, NIST AI RMF-style risk management, and EU AI Act transparency readiness. This is compliance-readiness design, not a claim that every deployment or jurisdiction-specific use has completed legal review.

Proof Before Motion.

See how the evidence discipline shows up across the platform.