Loading the Proof Foundry evidence log…
SYNTHETIC · SHADOW · NOT_CAPITAL_READY — research evidence only. SigmaX proposes; humans authorize. No capital authority, no allocation recommendation.
The claim did not survive testing. Preserved as evidence, not promoted.
Rationale · Strategy genome is degenerate; any apparent edge for "Near-identical MA crossover" is an artifact, not a mechanism. Rejected before trust can be considered.
Establish, on a fair and pre-registered basis, whether "A near-identical MA-crossover genome (fast=32/slow=34/thresh=0.0074) is proposed as a momentum edge; the claim is that two almost-equal moving averages still encode a tradeable crossover signal." survives real-market out-of-sample testing net of fees and across regimes — and is therefore worth advancing toward human review.
Why it matters · Capital is never authorized by the Foundry (capital_authority="none"). The objective exists to separate a genuine, durable strategy edge from an in-sample artifact BEFORE any operator review, so that only trusted evidence — never an unsupported performance claim — reaches the decision record.
The strongest fair case in favour of the claim. None of it is proof on its own — each item carries its limitations, and any in-sample / validation number is shown as supports early pattern — not OOS proof.
Strong in-sample fit (Sharpe 1.96). Preserved as supporting evidence — in-sample only, not trusted proof.
supports early pattern — not OOS proof
in_sample_sharpe=1.9571
Survives validation (Sharpe 5.88). Preserved as supporting evidence — validation only, not trusted proof.
supports early pattern — not OOS proof
validation_sharpe=5.8787 · degradation_in_to_validation=-3.9216
Result is fee-resilient (not fee-fragile): OOS return stable from 9.33% (1x) to 8.8% (5x fees).
base_oos_return=0.0933 · x2_oos_return=0.092 · x5_oos_return=0.088 · fee_fragile=false
Safety gates held: can_go_live=false, live_broker_inert=true — no live-capital pathway was reachable for this run.
can_go_live=false · live_broker_inert=true · promoted_live=false · capital_mode=none · capital_authority=none · missing_live_keys_count=3
The strongest case against the claim. These receipts are preserved and shown even when the headline verdict already reflects them — disconfirming evidence is never buried.
FAILS held-out walk-forward OOS (Sharpe 10.7, return 9.33%): the edge does not survive out-of-sample.
oos_sharpe=10.6987 · oos_return=0.0933 · oos_max_drawdown=-0.056 · positive_fold_frac=0.6 · degradation=-4.4667 · n_folds=5 · passed=false
Proposed mechanism for "A near-identical MA-crossover genome (fast=32/slow=34/thresh=0.0074) is proposed as a momentum edge; the claim is that two almost-equal moving averages still encode a tradeable crossover signal." rests on a degenerate genome — plausibility is weakened.
claim_type=strategy_edge · strategy_degenerate=true · genome_fast=32 · genome_slow=34 · genome_thresh=0.0074
Regime classifier over-calls (dominant label "trend_down" at 31.7%, accuracy 68.1%); regime context is a limitation, not yet load-bearing.
accuracy=0.681 · crisis_recall=0.8 · dominant_label=trend_down · dominant_frac=0.317 · n_regimes=5
What is still missing before this claim could be trusted. Each gap is a reason it is NOT_CAPITAL_READY.
PROOF GAP: no real-market out-of-sample evidence exists — this run is synthetic. Real-data replication is required before any trust.
data_mode=SYNTHETIC · has_real_oos=false · oos_passed=false · run_limitations_count=6
walk_forward on REAL shadow data with regime-calibrated folds (data_replication)
Fastest path to evidence · Source REAL-market data for the traded asset(s) and re-run the walk-forward with regime-calibrated folds. The synthetic result — pass or fail — is not trusted proof; promoting the claim to real data is the single highest-leverage step and everything downstream depends on it.
Research Decision Record
scenario_degenerateclaim_ma_degeneraterejectedSYNTHETIC NOT_CAPITAL_READY NOT_TRUSTED REJECTEDoperator_pendingReason
Evidence is SYNTHETIC; synthetic data can never be capital-ready or review-ready. Walk-forward out-of-sample FAILED (oossharpe=10.698683139383096, oosreturn=0.09330168207750869); in-sample/validation-only is never trusted proof. Live trading is disabled (cangolive=false); the kill-switch held — a supporting safety receipt, not a promotion path. Fee stress was non-fragile (supporting receipt preserved) but cannot rescue a negative-OOS result.
The Proof Foundry proposes; the operator disposes. This record carries no capital authority and makes no unsupported alpha claim.
SigmaX proposes; humans authorize. This record carries no capital authority and makes no allocation recommendation.
This dossier is research evidence only. Every figure above is paired with its limitations and its in-sample / out-of-sample framing — no allocation recommendation is made. Data mode: SYNTHETIC. Capital authority: none.