Loading the Proof Foundry evidence log…
SYNTHETIC · SHADOW · NOT_CAPITAL_READY — research evidence only. SigmaX proposes; humans authorize. No capital authority, no allocation recommendation.
The claim did not survive testing. Preserved as evidence, not promoted.
Rationale · Walk-forward FAILED for "BTC/USD MA-crossover walk-forward OOS vs negative controls (REAL)": OOS Sharpe -0.18288529509662013 (return 0.024627277191958584), degradation 1.4529411096658844. In-sample 0.40377278898691016/validation 1.0390790258741336 did not survive out-of-sample. Supporting receipts (mechanism, regime, fee, safety) are preserved, but the headline claim is rejected.
Establish, on a fair and pre-registered basis, whether "A fee-aware MA-crossover strategy, searched on train and selected on validation, retains a positive walk-forward OOS edge on BTC/USD 1d data that beats its negative controls and survives fee stress." survives real-market out-of-sample testing net of fees and across regimes — and is therefore worth advancing toward human review.
Why it matters · Capital is never authorized by the Foundry (capital_authority="none"). The objective exists to separate a genuine, durable strategy edge from an in-sample artifact BEFORE any operator review, so that only trusted evidence — never an unsupported performance claim — reaches the decision record.
The strongest fair case in favour of the claim. None of it is proof on its own — each item carries its limitations, and any in-sample / validation number is shown as supports early pattern — not OOS proof.
Proposed mechanism for "A fee-aware MA-crossover strategy, searched on train and selected on validation, retains a positive walk-forward OOS edge on BTC/USD 1d data that beats its negative controls and survives fee stress." is structurally plausible (non-degenerate parameterization).
claim_type=strategy_edge · strategy_degenerate=false · genome_fast=21 · genome_slow=133 · genome_thresh=0
Survives validation (Sharpe 1.04). Preserved as supporting evidence — validation only, not trusted proof.
supports early pattern — not OOS proof
validation_sharpe=1.0391 · degradation_in_to_validation=-0.6353
Result is fee-resilient (not fee-fragile): OOS return stable from 2.46% (1x) to 2.23% (5x fees).
base_oos_return=0.0246 · x2_oos_return=0.024 · x5_oos_return=0.0223 · fee_fragile=false
Safety gates held: can_go_live=false, live_broker_inert=true — no live-capital pathway was reachable for this run.
can_go_live=false · live_broker_inert=true · promoted_live=false · capital_mode=none · capital_authority=none · missing_live_keys_count=3
The strongest case against the claim. These receipts are preserved and shown even when the headline verdict already reflects them — disconfirming evidence is never buried.
FAILS held-out walk-forward OOS (Sharpe -0.18, return 2.46%): the edge does not survive out-of-sample.
oos_sharpe=-0.1829 · oos_return=0.0246 · oos_max_drawdown=-0.3972 · positive_fold_frac=0.8 · degradation=1.4529 · n_folds=5 · passed=false
Regime classifier over-calls (dominant label "trend_down" at 31.7%, accuracy 68.1%); regime context is a limitation, not yet load-bearing.
accuracy=0.681 · crisis_recall=0.8 · dominant_label=trend_down · dominant_frac=0.317 · n_regimes=5
What is still missing before this claim could be trusted. Each gap is a reason it is NOT_CAPITAL_READY.
PROOF GAP: real-market forward confirmation is missing.
data_mode=REAL · has_real_oos=true · oos_passed=false · run_limitations_count=6
Fastest path to evidence · Pass the held-out walk-forward OOS gates on real data AND beat every negative control; then capture out-of-time forward data in shadow mode for replication. No promotion occurs on this lane regardless of outcome.
Research Decision Record
realdata_btcusd_1dclaim_btc/usd_ma_oosrejectedNOT_CAPITAL_READY NOT_TRUSTED REJECTEDoperator_pendingReason
Walk-forward out-of-sample FAILED (oossharpe=-0.18288529509662013, oosreturn=0.024627277191958584); in-sample/validation-only is never trusted proof. Live trading is disabled (cangolive=false); the kill-switch held — a supporting safety receipt, not a promotion path. Fee stress was non-fragile (supporting receipt preserved) but cannot rescue a negative-OOS result.
The Proof Foundry proposes; the operator disposes. This record carries no capital authority and makes no unsupported alpha claim.
SigmaX proposes; humans authorize. This record carries no capital authority and makes no allocation recommendation.
This dossier is research evidence only. Every figure above is paired with its limitations and its in-sample / out-of-sample framing — no allocation recommendation is made. Data mode: REAL. Capital authority: none.